The Nifty 50 opened the week with a gap up on Monday and then traded inside a narrow range for the remainder of the week. The index encountered support close to the previous breakout zone of 16400 to 16450, and due to the global markets’ rally, a gap higher occurred on Friday. However, the index reversed intraday gains during the previous trading session and closed below 16,600. Overall, it was a nice trading week for bulls, as markets experienced bullish momentum and a rebound from the 16450-16400 support zone. Before the latest trading session, however, the statistics turned gloomy, as FIIs reduced their long positions in the index futures segment and initiated new short positions.
However, global economic activity is projected to continue to keep the stock market busy next week. The forthcoming week’s stock market movement will be determined by the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting, the meeting of the European Central Bank, US inflation statistics, etc.
Sreeram Ramdas, Vice President of Green Portfolio — a SEBI-Registered Portfolio Management Service Provider — spoke on the significant catalysts that may influence the stock market in the near future “Several economic data releases will have a short-term impact on the markets the next week. We mostly have US market data releases followed by a decision from our RBI meeting.”
Here are the top 5 potential market-moving events this week
RBI MPC meeting: China’s manufacturing PMI report has bolstered the markets ahead of the RBI MPC meeting. Even though Chinese manufacturing experienced a decline, there was a glimmer of revival in the data, which was welcomed by the markets. Any bottlenecks or unexpected lockdowns can hinder this progress.
“Manufacturing data – We anticipate a nearly 1 percent increase in India’s manufacturing output year-over-year; any figure above this would indicate that the manufacturing sector’s recovery is extending without exhaustion. Next week, the RBI interest rate decision will be a pivotal occasion for markets. Even if the markets have anticipated a 40-basis-point increase, the repo rate decision announcement will be the focal point. If the RBI’s priority has moved from preventing inflation to fostering economic growth, we may see additional declines in both stocks and bonds “said Sreeram Ramdas.
2] ECB meeting: On the macro front, we have the ECB meeting, which will be in the limelight given that the most recent data has raised concerns about inflation in the Eurozone, which has reached a record high due to rising energy prices. The upcoming week would also be dominated by central bank meetings from Australia and Russia. Any change in policymakers’ dovish tone could be a negative factor for the dollar index. It is anticipated that a decline in the dollar index will halt FIIs’ selling in Indian markets.
3] European first quarter GDP data: “This will provide a clearer picture of the worldwide slowdown rumors. Any disappointing report could prompt a sell-off on Dalal Street and other global equity markets “Vice President of Research at IIFL Securities Anuj Gupta stated.
4] US inflation data: As US inflation is a major issue for major central banks throughout the world, four] US inflation data. This week, stock market traders and investors are encouraged to monitor the forthcoming US inflation statistics. Any positive report has the potential to bolster global stock markets.
5] Russia-Ukraine war: “Considering that Russia now controls over 20 percent of Ukrainian land and the majority of the country’s eastern areas, a ceasefire will undoubtedly boost market sentiment and reduce commodities prices. US Crude oil stock change statistics will be released the following week. Patterns of severe stockpile depletion have contributed to the significant increase in Crude oil prices. Additional continued drawdown will contribute to price increases “Sreeram Ramdas remarked.