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C0RONAVIRUS: When will the third wave of COVID-19 end? Find out what experts have to say

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COVID-19

As the number of COVID-19 cases rises alarmingly, a general question arises: is the infection becoming more aggressive, or has it reached its peak and is now slowly ebbing? If not, when do you think it’ll fade away? When do you think it’ll be completely gone?

According to experts, the country is currently under the merciless grip of COVID-19‘s third wave, which will begin to fade at the beginning of next month.
According to IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal, who has been tracking the COVID-19 curve in India using the SUTRA model, India will see a peak in COVID-19 infection cases around January 15, with the majority of cases likely to be reported in larger cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata.

At the moment, Delhi is reporting more than 22,000 cases per day, and according to a study conducted by an IIT professor, the number of cases will peak at nearly 40,000 cases per day in mid-January.

When it comes to when the cases will stop, Professor Agrawal says, “We expect the decline to be equally sharp, and if the peak occurs in January, the wave will be over by the middle of March.” His research contradicts the notion that election rallies are a virus super-spreader. “It is incorrect to attribute the spread solely to election rallies. There are many things that are known as spreading, and election rallies are one of them. And it is incorrect to believe that simply stopping election rallies will stop the spread,” he told news agency ANI.

Professor Agrawal’s study, which sheds light on the peak and decline of COVID, was corroborated by a research study on COVID-19 surge conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI). According to reports, IISc and ISI researchers claim that the current surge in Covid-19 cases across the country will begin to decline next month, though the rate of decline will vary by state. They also predicted that the current COVID case curve will flatten by March or April, with the country seeing more than 8 lakh daily cases at its peak.

In terms of hospital needs, which wreaked havoc during the second wave, these researchers say that in the worst-case scenario, only if 100 percent of the country’s population is susceptible to COVID, hospital needs could reach 4 lakh per day and ICU needs could reach 20,000.

READ MORE: Congratulations to those who received a precaution dose today: PM

“There is increasing evidence on omicron-based community transmission,” Himanshu Sikka told the media about the inevitable harshness of the third wave. The numbers are expected to skyrocket in the coming weeks, reaching a million positive cases per day by the end of the month.” He is a consultant for IPE Global, an international healthcare development firm.

“A third wave is on the way, but the combination of previous exposure, rising vaccination coverage rates, and low reported omicron infection severity should hopefully result in a less severe problem than the second wave.” Professor Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Washington-based Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy, told the media, “I don’t see any reason why an omicron-driven wave in India would be more dangerous than in other countries.”

READ MORE : COVID: UK Minister Michael Goa says the country isn’t ready for the virus

India is reportedly better equipped and prepared in terms of hospitals than it was during the second wave.

Many other experts have focused on the drop in COVID cases that began in February and peaked in mid-January.

To combat the spread of the coronavirus, state governments across the country have imposed travel restrictions on weekends and holidays.

India reported 2,47,417 new COVID cases on Thursday, the most since May. The total number of Omicrons in the country is now 5,488.

READ MORE: Covid cases reach all-time high in West Bengal with 24,287 cases

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